Understanding the Crypto Bubble: What I've Seen With My Own Eyes

By Felix – founder of unCoded, trading crypto and equities since 2016. I still remember exactly how it felt. Late 2017. Portfolio green every single day. Telegram going off every hour with the next 10x gem. My grandma was calling me asking if she should buy Bitcoin.

My grandma.

That should've been my exit signal.

It wasn't.

And that's the whole problem with crypto bubbles. From the inside, they don't feel like bubbles. They feel like the new normal.

We're in 2026 now. I've been doing this for almost a decade. And I'm telling you straight up: nothing has changed. Just the packaging.

Let's Clear Something Up First

I'm sick of hearing people call every green candle a bubble. That's not how this works.

A real bubble isn't a bull run. It's not a healthy rally. It's when prices completely disconnect from reality. When projects with no product, no users, sometimes literally no team, hit billion-dollar valuations because some influencer posted a TikTok about them.

And the brutal part? It always looks legit. 2017 was "blockchain changes everything." 2021 was "institutions are finally here." 2024/2025 it was "Bitcoin ETFs, regulation is clear, this time it's real adoption." And you know what – part of that was even true.

Didn't stop people from buying the top, holding too long, and selling in panic.

The narrative changes every cycle. People don't.

Why We Keep Falling For It

I've been in this space since the early days. I've watched bubbles build and pop. I've felt that crash feeling in my stomach more than once. And I'll be honest with you – knowing intellectually that something might be a bubble does absolutely nothing to protect you when you're in the middle of it.

Because FOMO isn't rational. It doesn't respond to charts or analysis. When your entire feed is people showing off their gains, your brain stops thinking and starts reacting. Simple as that.

Then there's herd mentality. When everyone's buying, sitting on the sidelines feels like losing. That instinct is hardwired into us. In crypto, ignoring it is often the smartest trade you'll ever make.

And the media. The moment Bitcoin hit $100k and landed on mainstream news in 2024, my LinkedIn was full of consultants and corporate types suddenly posting crypto takes. I've seen that movie before. Multiple times. I know how it ends.

The Red Flags I've Learned to Spot

Nobody can call tops perfectly. Anyone telling you otherwise is selling something.

But after enough cycles, patterns become obvious. A project pumping 300% in six weeks with no mainnet, no product, nothing – that's not a bull run, that's a time bomb. Your uncle texting you about some random memecoin. Your coworkers talking bags at lunch. That's not adoption – that's a warning.

The Fear & Greed Index sitting in Extreme Greed for weeks straight. Not a guarantee of a crash – but not a foundation you want to build on either.

And the classic: "fundamentals don't matter right now." The moment people start saying that, start making your exit plan.

"This time it's different" is the most expensive sentence in financial history. Every single cycle, someone says it. Every single cycle, it costs someone everything.

2017 Taught Me. 2022 Made Sure I Didn't Forget.

In 2017 I sold too late. Not because I was clueless. Because I got greedy. Just one more leg up. Classic.

When the turn came I told myself it was a dip. It wasn't a dip.

2022 was a whole different kind of ugly. Luna went to zero in days. FTX – one of the biggest exchanges on the planet – just collapsed overnight. That wasn't a market correction. That was the whole structure cracking. And people held through all of it because the story still sounded good.

What saved me over the years wasn't genius timing. It was having rules set before things got euphoric. Take profit here. Pull out initial capital there. At some point I stopped trusting myself to execute those rules manually in the heat of the moment – emotions are too strong, the market moves too fast. That's actually a big part of why I built unCoded: a trading bot that follows your strategy whether you're calm or panicking, whether it's 3am or the market is crashing on a Sunday. Not because bots are magic – they're not – but because discipline is, and most of us run out of it at exactly the wrong moment.

Crashes End. That Doesn't Mean You Get a Free Pass.

Every major crash has eventually been followed by new highs. Bitcoin at $3k after 2018. Under $16k after 2022. Both times it came back stronger.

But let's not pretend that's a law of nature. This market is under 20 years old. We have barely any long-term data. And for every Bitcoin that recovered, there are thousands of altcoins that just quietly died and never came back.

Only put in what you can lose completely. I know that sounds like a cliché. It is a cliché. It's also true, and most people ignore it until it's too late.

2026. Same Game, Different Round.

The infrastructure is better now. Regulation exists. Institutions are genuinely involved. I'm not dismissing any of that.

But the psychology? Identical to 2013. Identical to 2017. Identical to 2021.

The next bubble is coming. It'll feel different. It'll have a convincing story. People will say fundamentals finally justify the prices.

Maybe they'll even be partially right.

Doesn't matter. The masses will still buy late, hold too long, and panic sell at the bottom. The only edge that actually holds up across cycles isn't a secret indicator or an insider tip – it's a strategy you stick to when everything in your gut is screaming at you to do the opposite. Whatever helps you get there – a clear plan, a trusted system, or a bot that doesn't have feelings – use it.

Don't be the masses.